Surprise Attack - Speed of Use of Variety

In any hyper-complex situation, the locus, dynamics and ownership of power and control is shaped by the distribution of variety.

Availability of variety for any party is dependent on the time to access and implement that variety. 

That is, the time to access variety has an inverse value to availability of variety itself.

Thus, there is potential for a surprise attack when:

  • One or more parties can more rapidly access the variety they control than other parties can access the varieties they control.  
  • The transaction costs of implementing the surprise attack and immediate management of subsequent gains (including protecting them from reprisals) is less than the benefits gained by the attack.

The difference in availability of variety due to different times to access parties' varieties, offers dynamic variety advantage to the faster party and hence advantages in access to power and control.

That is, speed of use of variety results in a temporary variety advantage even though, statically, the overall static balance of variety may be otherwise.