Surprise Attack – Variety in Interpretation (Deception)

Terence Love Variety Dynamics Axioms

In any hyper-complex situation, the locus, dynamics and ownership of power is shaped by the distribution of variety. Some of this variety is physical, some in processes and some in the information realm. A crucial dimension of variety  in the information realm is the variety of potential interpretations of available information by different agents. The arts of subterfuge and misinformation include this manipulation of variety of potential interpretations of information.

 Thus, an indicator for a surprise attack is when:

  • There is a variety in the potential interpretations of the information available to different parties in a situation.
  • One or more parties can structure the dynamics of the variet(ies) of potential interpretations of events
  • Manipulated changes to the dynamics of the variet(ies) of potential interpretations of information can be used to benefit those creating the changes in informatic varieties.
  • The transaction costs of implementing  and managing varieties of potential interpretations of information by other parties, and managing subsequent consequences (including protection from informatic reprisals), must be  less than the benefits gained.

Changes in the variety of potential interpretation of information offer both advantage in undertaking a surprise attack and indicators to defenders of opponents’ possible intention to undertake a surprise attack.

Simplistic examples of the above axiom are subterfuge and misinformation.

More complex approaches to modifying variety of interpretation can be arranged so that hey are beyond the two-feedback loop horizon such that the perpetrator is effectively controlling other parties’ decision-making, strategy and interventions.

Surprise Attack - Speed of Use of Variety

Terence Love Variety Dynamics Axioms

In any hyper-complex situation, the locus, dynamics and ownership of power and control is shaped by the distribution of variety.

Availability of variety for any party is dependent on the time to access and implement that variety. 

That is, the time to access variety has an inverse value to availability of variety itself.

Thus, there is potential for a surprise attack when:

  • One or more parties can more rapidly access the variety they control than other parties can access the varieties they control.  
  • The transaction costs of implementing the surprise attack and immediate management of subsequent gains (including protecting them from reprisals) is less than the benefits gained by the attack.

The difference in availability of variety due to different times to access parties' varieties, offers dynamic variety advantage to the faster party and hence advantages in access to power and control.

That is, speed of use of variety results in a temporary variety advantage even though, statically, the overall static balance of variety may be otherwise.

Suprise Attacks - Three Conditions

Terence Love Variety Dynamics Axioms

In any hyper-complex situation, there is potential for a surprise attack when three conditions are met:

  • One agent in the situation has access to greater variety than other agents
  • Obtaining control over other agents and their assets can be achieved by using the difference in variety
  • The transaction costs of the surprise attack together with the immediate cost of management and control of the additional assets is less than the value of the assets of the other parties.