In any hyper-complex situation, the locus, dynamics and ownership of power is shaped by the distribution of variety. Some of this variety is physical, some in processes and some in the information realm. A crucial dimension of variety in the information realm is the variety of potential interpretations of available information by different agents. The arts of subterfuge and misinformation include this manipulation of variety of potential interpretations of information.
Thus, an indicator for a surprise attack is when:
- There is a variety in the potential interpretations of the information available to different parties in a situation.
- One or more parties can structure the dynamics of the variet(ies) of potential interpretations of events
- Manipulated changes to the dynamics of the variet(ies) of potential interpretations of information can be used to benefit those creating the changes in informatic varieties.
- The transaction costs of implementing and managing varieties of potential interpretations of information by other parties, and managing subsequent consequences (including protection from informatic reprisals), must be less than the benefits gained.
Changes in the variety of potential interpretation of information offer both advantage in undertaking a surprise attack and indicators to defenders of opponents’ possible intention to undertake a surprise attack.
Simplistic examples of the above axiom are subterfuge and misinformation.
More complex approaches to modifying variety of interpretation can be arranged so that hey are beyond the two-feedback loop horizon such that the perpetrator is effectively controlling other parties’ decision-making, strategy and interventions.