AXIOM 45 Surprise Attack – variety in interpretation (deception)

In any hyper-complex situation, the locus, dynamics and ownership of power is shaped by the distribution of variety.
Some of this variety is physical, some in processes, and some in the information realm. 
A crucial dimension of variety in the information realm is the variety of potential interpretations of available information by different agents.

The arts of subterfuge and misinformation involve manipulation of this interpretation variety.

Surprise attack becomes feasible when:

  • There is variety in the potential interpretations of information available to different parties in a situation
  • One or more parties can structure the dynamics of the varieties of potential interpretations of events
  • Manipulated changes to the dynamics of interpretation varieties can benefit those creating the changes
  • The Coasian transaction costs of implementing these changes in interpretation varieties and managing subsequent consequences (including protection from informatic reprisals) are less than the benefits gained

Such changes in interpretation variety offer both advantage in undertaking surprise attack and indicators to defenders of opponents' possible intentions to undertake surprise attack.

Simplistic examples include subterfuge and misinformation. More complex approaches exist beyond the two-feedback loop horizon such that the perpetrator is effectively controlling other parties' decision-making, strategy and interventions.

Beyond military applications, interpretation variety manipulation is often found in advertising and marketing, political campaigns, negotiation and diplomacy, art and literature, scientific communication, legal arguments, and many other domains.

The axiom reveals: Surprise attack is typically an interpretation variety management problem, not an information availability problem.

Defenders need not just information, but sufficient variety in interpretation - the ability to consider all plausible interpretations and resist adversarial shaping of their interpretation space.

Deception is variety dynamics in the cognitive realm, operating with the same principles: system and control variety, transaction costs, multi-loop opacity, and power through variety control.