Variety Dynamics is a powerful tool to help design the early stage interventions to control epidemics and reduce their scope, scale, costs and adverse consequences on populations and countries.

The early stages of epidemics are characterised by lack of information, positive feedback loops and the resulting need to act as early as possible.

Practically, positive feedback loops in epidemics occur  in many ways. At heart is that the more people are infected, the more people become infected.

Typically, government epidemic decision making has been based on the output of Discrete Event Simulation software (DES). This models the epidemic in terms of changes to the state at discrete event points in the epidemic (e.g. infection, visiting doctor, pathological testing, hospital triage, bed in ICU, treatment, review, recovery, death...).  DES has been preferentially used due to  familiarity - hospitals use it in normal life  for planning.

Discrete Event Simulation software (DES) has two serious limitations.

• DES does not identify the positive  feedback loops needed to be addressed and how urgently they need to be addressed. It is essentially a linear model. 
• DES takes time, a long time to gather the information to make its model. In fact, ideally, the epidemic has to reach a stable state before a DES model has the information to make the simulation model. Together, these mean that government's responses to epidemics are to late to be effective at early control.

Systems Dynamics (SD) modelling improves on DES because it identifies problematic feedback loops at the outset, via its preparatory stage of creating a causal loop diagram. Also, besides producing decision guidance mucSD modelling requires much less information than DES. SD can provide some of the same data as DES for health purposes, e.g. . flows of patients through the system. However, SD although faster than DES still does not explicitly provide strategies to manage the epidemic.

Variety Dynamics analysis provides a means to identify strategies, operations and tactics likely to be effective in the early stages of an epidemic, and also, if necessary at later stages. Epidemics dynamically  change the distribution of variety. If nothing is done in response, or if the response is delayed, then power and control of the society/state flows towards the epidemic and its cause, and away from the government, people and existing institutions.

Variety dynamics can be used to quickly map the distribution and dynamics of distribution  of new variety caused by the epidemic.  This then offers those intervening with a ready understanding of the scale and diversity of variety changes needed to address the epidemic.  Variety Dynamics works symbiotically with System Dynamics modelling. However, DES modelling, by its nature, is too slow in its response to be useful.  

Variety Dynamics is concerned with the  dynamic distribution of variety in any situation.

Variety is the number of possible options available to different elements in a situation.

Theory of Variety Dynamics research currently has eleven strands:

• The development and use of Variety Dynamics axioms to manage power and control in a wide variety of contested or complex situations
• Modifying the dynamics of distribution of variety to influence ownership and direction of power and control
• Using the Two-feedback loop limitation axiom to manage human agent behaviours and identify failure areas in decision-making
• The roles of  time dynamics in variety dynamics
• Identifying the differing roles of transaction costs in modifying variety distributions to change locus and ownership of power 
• Identifying where Variety Dynamics is more effective than conventional force  and related approaches to change the locus of power and its ownership
• Identifying the benefits of Variety Dynamics analysis over conventional causal analyses
• Mapping the benefits of the reduced information needs of Variety Dynamics guidance on decision-making compared to conventional causal analyses
• Exploring the benefits and potential of the intrinsic covert nature of Variety Dynamics interventions
• Practical application of Variety Dynamics in improved guidance for addressing  hyper-complex wicked problem situations that do not conform to the standard system analysis assumptions
• Development of the new mathematical field of Variety Dynamics, the dynamic V distribution,  its dynamics and its mathematical relationship to power and control.

Variety Dynamics offers a new insight into Military History. It is particularly relevant to New Military History that includes sociological, economic, environmental, historical, technological and cultural factors.

Variety Dynamics offers deep insights about the progression of events in the realms of aggressors and defenders.

In Military terms, Variety Dynamics offers a new overarching analysis of military doctrines, and, in its own right, offers a new military doctrine  and a new basis for understanding  strategy, operations and tactical decision-making.

Advantageously, Variety Dynamics provides a tool to analyse situations that are information-sparse or fully covert. On the larger scale, Variety Dynamics is capable if undertaking analyses and identifying reasons for outcomes without  the same need for comprehensive information required of typical Military History analyses that depend on causal understanding of events

In short,  Variety Dynamics offers:

• A new from of Military History analysis
• A new approach that includes addressing covert situations or those with substantially missing information
• A new overarching approach for comparing and contrasting existing military doctrines and their application and effectiveness
• A new form of military strategy
• A new field of Military History

 

Below are articles, conference papers, theses and sundries relating to Variety Dynamics. These are typically as pre-prints. The final published versions are available from the publishers described in the references.

2025

Love, T. and Cooper, T. (2025) Variety Dynamics for Taking Control of Complex Heterogenous Systems in Information Warfare, Journal of Information Warfare, 24 (2), pp. 60-78

Love, T. (2025) CPTED or Security? Financial & legal liabilities & ethics for Local Government, Police, Planners, Architects, CPTED practitioners and the ICA. ICA CPTED Journal.

2024

Love, T. (2024). New Military History: Using Variety Dynamics. Military History Conference, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK (pptx as pdf).

2023

Love, T.  and Cooper, T. (2023). Variety Dynamics: A New Body of Systems Methods and a New Mathematical Field for Management of Dynamically-Complex Multi-Actor Systems. ISSS Conference, Kruger Park, South Africa (pdf).

Love, T. (2023) Two Feedback Loop Limitation Axiom and System Science, Journal of the International Society for Systems Sciences.

Love, T. (2023) Variety Dynamics in Defence and Security. IMA 7th Conference on Mathematics in Defence and Security, Imperial College, London, UK. (pptx as pdf)

Love, T. (2023). Prediction and Causal Loop Modelling to Identify Limits of Systems Thinking Methods, and Define Complex Systems, Operational Research Society Conference OR65 (pptx as pdf)

Love, T. (2023) Using Variety Dynamics to Take Control of Coercive Systems. Operational Research Society Conference OR65 (pptx as pdf)

2022

Love, T. (2022). Variety Methods and Variety Theory: An Innovation Framework for Cyber-Security. Presentation developed for Australian Information Security Association annual conference, Perth, Western Australia.

Love, T., Cozens, P., Cooper, T. (2022). Planning Theory, Crime Prevention through Environmental Design (CPTED) and complexity: what planners can learn from COVID-19. Urban Policy and Research (in press). (pdf)

Love, T. & Cooper, T. (2022) Variety Dynamics support for System Dynamics. System Thinking and Modelling Symposium 4 Feb 2022. Oceania Chapter of System Dynamics Society.  (PowerPoint)

Love, T. (2022) Three Categories of Design Thinking: Routine, Simple/Complicated and Complex. Journal of Design Thinking. Volume 2, Issue 2, December 2021, Pages 191-214.

2021

Love, T. (2021) Variety Dynamics Overview for ICCPM. International Centre for Complex Project Management.

Love, T. & Cooper, T. (2021) Variety Dynamics for Operational Research, OR63 International Operational Research Society Conference.

Love, T. (2021). Variety Dynamics: A New Dimension of CPTED. International CPTED Conference, Helsingborg, Sweden

Love, T. (2010). An introduction to Variety Dynamics. ANZSYS Conversations. July 2021

2019

Love, T. (2019) Eight Keys to Effective Natural Surveillance. LinkedIn Pulse

2018

Love, T. (2018). The 2 Feedback Loop Axiom and its  Implications for OR, Systems Thinking and Wicked Problems in Planning and Crime Prevention. OR60 Operational Research Conference, Lancaster University, UK.

Love, T. (2018). Machiavelli:  Using Distribution and Dynamics of Variety to Change the Locus of Control of Complex Socio-Technical-Political Systems. OR60 Operational Research Conference, Lancaster University, UK.

Love, T. (2018). Thief of Time: Time as an Equivalent to Variety to Manipulate Power and Control in Complex Socio-Technical Political Situations. OR60 Operational Research Conference, Lancaster University, UK.

Love, T. (2018) Improving Counter IED Outcomes: A case study written for the Defense Science and Technology Laboratory demonstrating the use of a Variety Method. Informal report requested by DSTL, UK

Love, T. (2018) Variety Analysis of Northbridge Curfew. Internal working document Design Out Crime and CPTED Centre.

2015

Love, T. (2013). Confidentiality Risks for Engineers: 5 Tools for Secure Engineering Communications. Institution of Mechanical Engineers Panel Presentation, Perth , WA.

2011

Love, T. (2011) Implications of Personal Delusions in Design and the 2-Feedback Loop Limitation. Anti-Po-Des Design Research Journal submission (unclear whether published).

Love, T. (2011). Three Essential Design Factors in Successful Social Business Development. (provocation submission for Design for Social Business book).

Love, T. & Cooper, T. (2011). Digital Ecosystems: Conceptual Optimisation to Manage Complexity, Interoperability and Viability, Digital Ecosystems Journal .

Love, T. (2011). New Directions in Design: Five new systems-based design approaches. International Journal of Design submission (unclear whether published).

Love, T. & Cooper, T. (2011) Using Variety Analyses to Improve Educational Sustainability and Liveability. ANZSYS Conference Brisbane.

Love, T. (2011) Motivational information systems have a reduced or negative effect in discontinuous situations. The Journal of Information Systems and Telecommunications (submitted- unclear if published).

2010

Love, T. (2010). Can you feel it? Yes we can! Human Limitations in Design Theory (invited plenary). Paper presented at the CEPHAD 2010 conference, Copenhagen, Denmark (pdf of paper).

Love, T. (2010). Can you feel it? Yes we can! Human Limitations in Design Theory (invited plenary). Paper presented at the CEPHAD 2010 conference, Copenhagen, Denmark (pdf of PowerPoint) 

Love, T. (2010). Design Guideline Gap and 2 Feedback Loop Limitation: Two issues in Design and Emotion theory, research and practice. In J. Gregory, K. Sato & P. Desmet (Eds.), Proceedings of the 7th Design and Emotion Conference 2010 Blatantly Blues. Chicago: Institute of Design and Design and Emotion Society (pdf of paper). 

Love, T. (2010). Design Guideline Gap and 2 Feedback Loop Limitation: Two issues in Design and Emotion theory, research and practice. In J. Gregory, K. Sato & P. Desmet (Eds.), Proceedings of the 7th Design and Emotion Conference 2010 Blatantly Blues. Chicago: Institute of Design and Design and Emotion Society (pdf of PowerPoint).

Love, T. (2010). Scope of Design. Research and Creative Practices Seminar 31 Aug 2010, Curtin University, Perth (pdf of PowerPoint)

Love, T. (2010). New Directions in Sustainable Design. Ethology Draws!. Research and Creative Practices Seminar 2 June 2010, Curtin University, Perth (pdf of PowerPoint)

2009

Love, T. & Cooper, T. (2009). How to steal control of an organization: new Systems Science tools for CEOs, organizational strategists, technologists, activists and military strategists. University of Oregon System Sciences seminar.

Love, T. (2009). Understanding in Design Edited from presentation by T. Love for Linus Pauling Memorial Lecture 'Holistic Design'. (15 Jan 2009). Portland: Institute of Science, Engineering and Public Policy.

Love, T. (2009). University-Based Units providing Design and Innovation Support for Businesses and Public Sector Organisations. In E. Corte-Real, A. Couto & C. Duarte (Eds.), Proceedings of the 5th Internacional Conference of UNIDCOM/IADE "40IADE40" (pp. 402-409). Lisbon: IADE - Creative University.

Love, T. (2009). Complicated and Complex Crime Prevention and the 2 Feedback Loop Law. In T. Cooper, P. Cozens, K. Dorst, P. Henry & T. Love (Eds.), Proceedings of iDOC'09 'What's Up Doc' International Design Out Crime Conference. Perth: Design Out Crime Research Centre. Proceedings online at http://www.designoutcrime.org/ocs2/index.php/iDOC/2009/schedConf/presentations

Love, T. ( 2009). Counter-intuitive Design Thinking: Implications for Design Education, Research and Practice (including pandemic management). Cumulus 38South Conference, Melbourne (pdf ).

Love, T. (2009) 'Holistic Design'. Linus Pauling Memorial Lecture (15 Jan 2009). Portland: Institute of Science, Engineering and Public Policy. [pdf of pptx].

Love, T. and Cooper, T. (2009) Built Environments of Digitally-based Ecosystems: Systemic Variety-Based Design. Invited lecture to Dept of Architecture, University of Oregon [pdf  of pptx].

Love, T. and Cooper, T. (2009) Built Environments of Digitally-based Ecosystems: Systemic Variety-Based Design. Invited lecture to Dept of Architecture, University of Oregon [Introductory notes].

Yang, S and Love, T. (2009) Designing Shape-shifting of Knitwear by Stitch Shaping Combinatorics: A simple mathematical approach to developing knitwear silhouettes efficaciously. IASDR Conference 2009: Design / Rigor & Relevance, Seoul: International Association of Societies of Design Research and the Korean Society for Design [pdf 185Kb] 

2008

Love, T. , & Cooper, T. (2008). Motivational Information Systems: Case study of a University Research Productivity Index and 6th Extension to Ashby’s Law Paper presented at the ANZSYS'08: 14th International Conference, Perth, WA.

Love, T. (2008). Design & Innovation: Integrating Engineering, Information Systems, Business and Humanities. Paper (ppt) presented at the Digital Ecosystems and Business Intelligence Institute (DEBII) Research Forum.

Love, T. (2008). Improving Design of Micro-business Systems via VSM and Constituent Orientation Analysis. In C. Rust (Ed.), Design Research Society International Conference 2008: Undisciplined! (pp. CDROM). Sheffield, UK: Sheffield Hallam University and Design Research Society [CDROM].

Love, T. & Cooper, C. (2008). Machiavelli with Extra Variety: Taking Organisational Power and Control. Paper (ppt) presented at the Institute of Enterpreneurship and Enterprise Development, Management School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK. [pdf  of PowerPoint - 1Mb]

Love, T., & Cooper, C. (2008). Machiavelli with Extra Variety: Taking Organisational Power and Control. Paper (ppt) presented at the Systems Thinking Group of Western Australia, Technology Park, Bentley, Western Australia.

2007

Love, T., & Cooper, T. (2007). Complex Built-environment Design: Four Extensions to Ashby. Kybernetes, 46(9/10), 1422-1435.

Love, T. And Cooper, T (2007) Successful activism strategies: Five new extensions to Ashby. In K. Fielden & J. Sheffield (Eds), Systemic development: local solutions in a global environment, ANZSYS 2007 proceedings [CDROM]. Auckland, NZ: Unitech.

Love, T., & Cooper, T. (2007). Digital Eco-systems Pre-Design: Variety Analyses, System Viability and Tacit System Control Mechanisms. In E. Chang & F. K. Hussain (Eds.), 2007 Inaugural IEEE International Conference on Digital Ecosystems and Technologies 21-23 February 2007 Cairns, Australia (pp. 452-457). Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE.

Love, T., & Cooper, T. (2007). An Inclusive Approach to Learning Object Architectures: Portfolios and RDF. In K. Harman & A. Koohang (Eds.), Learning Objects: Standards, Metadata, Repositories, and LCMS (pp. 315-350). Santa Rosa, California: Informing Science Press.

Love, T. (2007). System Dynamics modelling of national design infrastructure development. In K. Fielden & J. Sheffield (Eds.), Systemic development: local solutions in a global environment. ANSYS 2007 proceedings (Vol. [CDROM]). Auckland: Unitech.

2006

Love, T. (2006). Design Centres as Elements of Design Infrastructure. SEEDesign Bulletin (Design Wales)(2), 3-5.

Love, T. (2006). A Systems Analysis of the Problem of Professional Practice in Design: "Why Mac Computer Systems Reduce Creativity and Inhibit Quality Improvement of Novel Innovative Design" - Plenary.WonderGround, Designing interdisciplinary discourse, conspiring for Design Leadership, Design Research Society International Conference 2006 Lisbon, Portugal: IADE - Instituto Artes Visuais Design Marketing.

2005

Love, T. (2005). Design Infrastructure: Australian Developments. In 2005IDC New Design Paradigms Proceedings Douliou, Taiwan: National Yunlin University of Science and Technology and International Association of Design Research Societies (paper).

Love, T. (2005). Design Infrastructure: Australian Developments. In 2005IDC New Design Paradigms Proceedings Douliou, Taiwan: National Yunlin University of Science and Technology and International Association of Design Research Societies (PowerPoint as pdf).

Love, T. (2005). A Unified Basis for Design Research and Theory. In 2005IDC New Design Paradigms Proceedings (paper N00000808ATLIP00000971.pdf [CDROM]). Douliou, Taiwan: National Yunlin University of Science and Technology and International Association of Design Research Societies.

Love, T. (2005). The Practical Implications of the Essentially Two-faced Nature of Design. In E. Corte-Real, C. A. M. Duarte & F. Carvalho Rodrigues (Eds.), Pride & Predesign The Cultural Heritage and the Science of Design 2005 (pp. 251-254). Lisbon: IADE/UNIDCOM.

Love, T. (2005). The Future of e-Learning: Inclusive learning objects using RDF. Paper presented at the IEED Seminar 25 October 05, Lancaster University.

Love, T. (2005). Design Economies: Moving on from the Knowledge Economy. The Key Roles of Design Infrastructure in National Economic Development, Public Lecture, John Curtin Institute of Public Policy (19 Aug 05).

2004

Jonas, W., & Love, T. (2004). Interview with Terence Love. In W. Jonas (Ed.), Mind the Gap! On knowing and not-knowing

Love, T. (2004). Design Economies: Moving on from the Knowledge Economy. The central and essential role of design activity and infrastructure in local economic and social development. Presentation to the Institute for Small Business Affairs, ISBA Research Day, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK, 25 May 2004. (PowerPoint slides).

2003

Love, T., & Tellefsen, B. (2003). Constituent Market Orientation and Ownership of Virtual Marketplaces. Journal of Logistics and Information Management, 16(1), 8-17.

Love, T. (2003). Design and Sense: Implications of Damasio's Neurological Findings for Design Theory. Proceedings of Science and Technology of Design, Senses and Sensibility in Technology - Linking Tradition to Innovation through Design 25-26 September 2003, Lisbon, Portugal.

Love, T. (2003). Metrics for Bench-marking International Design Infrastructure. Proceedings of Science and Technology of Design, Senses and Sensibility in Technology - Linking Tradition to Innovation through Design 25-26 September 2003, Lisbon, Portugal.

Love, T. (2003). Beyond Emotions in Designing & Designs: Epistemological & Practical Issues. In D. McDonagh, D. Gyi, P. Hekkert & J. v. Erp (Eds.), Design and Emotion (pp. 387-391). London: Taylor & Francis.

Love, T. (2003). Customers' Use of Products as Design Tools. In Proceedings of the 6th Asian Design Conference. Tsukuba. (pdf)

Tellefsen, B., & Love, T. (2003). Constituent Market Orientation as a Basis for Integrated Design Processes and Design Management. In Proceedings of the 6th Asian Design Conference. Tsukuba.

Love, T. (2003). A Fork in the Road: Systems and Design. In T. Haslet & R. Sarah (Eds.), Proceedings of the 9th ANZSYS Australian and New Zealand Systems Conference - Monash University. Melbourne: Monyx.

Love, T. (2003). Design as a Social Process: Bodies, Brains and Social Aspects of Designing. Journal of Design Research.

2002

Love, T. (2002). Constructing a Coherent Cross-disciplinary Body of Theory about Designing and Designs: Some Philosophical Issues. International Journal of Design Studies, 23(3), 345-361.

Love, T. (2002). Learning from the Design-Science Paradox: New Foundations for a Field of Design. In W. Jonas (Ed.), The Basic Paradox.

Love, T. (2002). Design Management: Some Implications of Affect-based Theories of Cognition. BISCA 2002, MittelEuropa Foundation, Univ. of Trento. (pptx as pdf).

Love, T. (2002). Are the Reflective Practitioner and Learning Cycles suitable Foundations for Theories about Designing and Design Cognition? In D. Durling & J. Shackleton (Eds.), Common Ground. Proceedings of the Design Research Society International Conference at Brunel University, September 5-7, 2002. (pp. 678-686). Stoke-on-Trent: Staffordshire University Press.

Tellefsen, B. & Love, T. (2002). Understanding Designing and Design Management through Constituent Market Orientation and Constituent Orientation. In D. Durling & J. Shackleton (Eds.), Common Ground. Proceedings of the Design Research Society International Conference at Brunel University, September 5-7, 2002. Stoke-on-Trent: Staffordshire University Press.

Love, T. (2002). Review of 'Flood, R. & Carson, E. R. (Eds) (1988) Dealing with Complexity: An Introduction to the Theory and Application of Systems Science'. Visible Language, 36(2).

Love, T. (2002). Beyond Emotions in Designing & Designs: Epistemological & Practical Issues. Paper presented at the Design & Emotion '02 Conference, Loughborough, UK

Love, T. (2002). Complexity in Design Management: Layered System Dynamics Graphs. ANZSYS'02 'Management Approaches to Complex Systems', Mooloolaba, Qld. (Paper - pdf) (PowerPoint - pdf)

2001

Love, T. (2001). Strategic Management of Knowledge for Designers: Meta-Theoretical Hierarchy as a Foundation for Knowledge Management Tools. In J. Gero & K. Hori (Eds.), Strategic Knowledge and Concept Formation (pp. 3-16). Sydney: Key Centre of Design Computing and Cognition, University of Sydney.

Love, T. (2001). Concepts and Affects in Computational and Cognitive Models of Designing. In J. S. Gero, M. L. Maher (Eds.), Computational and Cognitive Models of Creative Design (pp. 3-23). Sydney: University of Sydney.

Love, T. (2001). Changes to Theory Making about Systems Involving People: Meta-theoretical Analysis and Brain Research. In W. Hutchinson & M. Warren (Eds.), The Relevance of Systems Thinking in the Contemporary World: Systems in Management 7th Annual ANZSYS Conference Proceedings (pp. 69-79). Perth: We-B Research Centre, Edith Cowan University.

Love, T. (2001). Designing Information Security for Small Businesses: Lessons from a Case Study. 2nd Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference, Perth, Western Australia.

Tellefsen, B., & Love, T. (2001). Constituent Market Orientation and Virtual Organisations. In S. Stoney & B. J (Eds.), Working for Excellence in the E-conomy (pp. 195-204). Scarborough, WA: We-B Research Centre, Edith Cowan University.

2000

Love, T. (2000). Philosophy of Design: a Meta-theoretical Structure for Design Theory. Design Studies, 21(3), 293-313.

Love, T. (2000). Educating Those involved in Changing Human Futures: A More Coherent Program For Design Education. In C. Swann & E. Young (Eds.), Re-inventing Design Education in the University (pp. 242-248). Perth: School of Design, Curtin University of Technology.

Love, T. (2000). A Meta-theoretical basis for Design Theory. In D. Durling & K. Friedman (Eds.), Doctoral Education in Design: Foundations for the Future (pp. 45-54). Stoke-on-Trent, UK: Staffordshire University Press.

Love, T. (2000). Computerising Affective Design Cognition. International Journal of Design Computing, 2.

1999 and before 

Love, T. (1999). Engineering design education: some implications of  a post-positivist theory of design cognition. In N. Juster (Ed.), The Continuum of Design Education (pp. 33-42). Bury St Edmunds, UK: Professional Engineering Publishing Ltd.

Love, T. (1999). Values Role in Computer Assisted Designing. International Journal of Design Computing, 1.

Love, T. (1998) Values Role in Computer Assisted Designing. DCNET'98 conference. Key Centre of Design Computing, Sydney NSW.

Love, T. (1996). Social, environmental and ethical factors: their implications for design theory. In M. A. Groves & S. Wong (Eds.), Design for People (pp. 199-206). Perth: Edith Cowan University.

Love, T. (1995). Systems Models and Engineering Design Theory. In W. Hutchinson & S. Metcalf & C. Standing & M. Williams (Eds.), Systems for the Future (pp. 238–246). Perth Western Australia: Edith Cowan University.